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Superfast broadband. But where's the content?

Steve Smith's picture

Superfast broadband take up will remain slow whilst online video remains uncompetitive.

Ofcom’s just published ‘Communications Market Report’ shows that although nearly 60% of homes in the UK have access to connections providing downloads faster than 25Mbps, only 7% of households have actually signed up to them.

On the surface, this will not be good news for the British government, which aims to make the UK a broadband leader in Europe by 2020. It also shows that the UK is far from achieving the EU's Digital Agenda goal, to have half of Europe’s households signed up to 100Mbps broadband services by 2020.

Ordinarily, I would say that the provision of superfast broadband is a classic example of a ‘if we build it, they will come’ approach (remember the Millenium Dome anyone?). However, I don’t believe this is necessarily the case here. It is no good having online content services in place that require fast broadband when the fast broadband infrastructure isn’t in place.

Cue this week’s partial launch of Sky’s ‘Now TV’ internet on-demand service. In a sign we are in transition to a post-satellite world, Sky is going to use the service to attract some of the remaining households not signed up to Sky’s satellite service or to its competitor, Virgin Media. Yet it is Sky’s hold on the top-tier movie line up that has helped constrain take up of superfast broadband. Recent launches of Netflix and Lovefilm’s UK online movie subscription services have not helped superfast broadband take-up because they don’t have the rights that Sky has. This said, these services together with Google TV and YouView launches will add to the mix and continue to bring on-demand to people’s attention.

nowtv.png

So, we will see people taking advantage of superfast broadband as the content becomes available that people want, but don’t expect this to increase rapidly. A caveat remains that we need a competitive market around film and other on-demand content, which we are unlikely to have whilst Sky is able to retain its dominance around premium movie rights.

Researchers beware of an aging population

Steve Smith's picture

On Monday, the Office for National Statistics released its first wave of findings from the 2011 census for England and Wales (Scotland, you will have to wait until later in the year).

The census data shows how rapidly the population of England and Wales is aging. Why is this important for researchers?

Have a look at the age distribution for England Wales:

population.png

The chart shows a long ‘tail’ of people aged 70 and over, so much so that they form 12% of the population. What this does is to skew upwards any averages we want to make when age is included in our analysis. For example, the average age of people in England and Wales is 39.3 years. Yet when we exclude people aged 70 and over we get a lower age of 34.5, which is much more representative of the bulk of the population.

To see how this can affect our research, let’s look at the proportion of internet users in the UK who are likely to discuss online a programme they are watching on TV. Across all internet users, it’s 25%. Yet when we look at age groups, this doesn’t look right.

skew.png

If each of these segments had the same number of people in, the average would be 31%. The reason for this six point difference is that there is a long tail of people aged 55+ in the internet user population. Only 12% of these people discuss programmes online whilst watching TV, but because there are so many of them, they skew the average down by six percentage points.

What is the implication of this? That an aging population means we need to be much more careful when using averages, because they can conceal the behaviour or characteristics of the bulk of the population. When once we could use averages to create simple pictures of the population, often this will no longer be the case.

New state of gaming, Twitter is mobile, @sign history, Apple patent wars, Printing blood vessels, Big Macs, 20 yr conversation

Afternoon all,

I am over the emotional draining of Murray’s speech from last w/e and ready to believe the Olympic tennis promises the nirvana of redemption. Although to be honest more likely redemption for Nadal than Murray. This week we are having a look at the world of gaming and how the devices are more like entertainment systems than pure-play gaming machines. Video here

OUYA: If you enjoyed the video this week then here is the link to the OUYA Kickstarter page. Why do think this is so important? A couple of reasons really, the TV is still a core screen in the house and people like to gather around it so making that the destination makes sense. Cheap gaming is huge as demonstrated by mobile and because this is open source it will scale quickly. Already at well over $3m raised it has started to generate the interest it needs to get the developers wanting to build for it.

Is Twitter the first of the truly mobile social networks to make money?: Twitter announced the other day that they are now regularly seeing more money come in from Mobile ads than from desktop ones. Looking at the graph below it is no surprise when you see that mobile is now their dominant channel.

Twitter mobile.jpg

Twitter history of the @sign: Back in the beginning Twitter was more of a framework than the full on platform it has become. Here is a great timeline of the origins of the functionality of the @ feature. That, like the # was created by users rather than Twitter.

Patent wars: It seems that there is constantly some form of patent battle being played out at the moment in the mobile world. The general consensus seems to be build up an arsenal of patents and then enforce those to defend the challenges you get. Hence why Google bought Motorola, FB spent billions on Y! IP etc. At the moment Apple seem to be losing friends by going aggressively after Samsung and stopping sale of some of their products in Australia and Germany. Well, it would seem is the bully boy in a lot of this if you look at the litigation maze created by Kanzatec IP Group. When the iPhone launched Steve Jobs famously declared “...and boy have we patented it”. 5 years later with Apple at the centre of 60% of all mobile litigation that would seem true.

Apple patent core.jpg

3D printing of blood vessels: If you haven’t already picked up on the 3D printing vibe then this might get you interested. A couple of months ago we saw how classic car enthusiasts were printing parts for their cars that were no longer in production. Well here is an amazing use case where scientists have worked out a way to print blood vessel networks, thus eliminating the problem of seams that were the critical weakness in the historic methods of their research. A really impressive video and less than 2 mins to really see Sci-Fi become Sci-Reality

McDonald’s make your own Big Mac: I’ve been really impressed with how McD's is changing their image at the moment as an open and "healthy" option through their honest videos. Personally I always thought there was a secret sauce in the Big Mac, apparently not

Random trail through web history: In celebration of their final gig happening this weekend, here is a picture of Les Horribles Cernettes a band of physiscts from the CERN labs (Higgs Boson), they are forever etched in to internet fame for being the first ever picture uploaded to the web back in July 1992.

Boson band.jpg

And if you really want to know about the band and get a live stream of the gig then go for your life

And finally... You may well have seen this, but if not, worth a watch for simple randomness and pre-planning. 20 years ago a guy (then 12 yrs old) recorded a video to himself, now, older, he has recorded the 2nd half of the conversation

Last one promise... If you like cats and the internet (you are heavily not alone) then get involved in the 1st online cat festival

Have a great w/e.

Oli.

Retail round up of news, 13 July

Steve Smith's picture

Welcome to this week's round of retail news.

Tablets Gaining on PCs in Online Shopping

In another sign of the post-PC era, people are quickly making tablet computers their preferred devices for mobile shopping.

According to a study in the US by Monetate, shoppers using a tablet tend to view the same number of Web pages as those on PCs, while shoppers using smartphones tend to view far fewer.

When looking at conversion rates, those for tablets and PCs are very close (3.2% vs 3.5%), while people using smartphones make fewer purchases (1.4%).

The propensity for tablet users to spend longer on their devices than people do on their smartphones means tablet traffic to retail sites will grow its share. According to the same study, 88% of web site visits to retailers come from PCs – a four point drop on first quarter 2012, whilst tablet traffic share has grown to 7%. This is the first time tablet share has exceed smartphone share.

Retailers bracing themselves for a second austerity Christmas

High street stores held their seasonal shows last week – known in the industry as Christmas in July – where they showcased their Christmas products. However, retailers are also preparing themselves for many Britons to balance the desire to celebrate with the limitations of squeezed incomes. The shows demonstrate how retailers expect this to mean more practical rather than luxurious presents – presents such as slippers, kettles and food processors.

Christmas can account for up to half of annual profits for non-food retailers. For supermarkets, Christmas shopping makes up around an extra month of trading – vital for Tesco and Marks and Spencer.

Stores depend upon clearances to boost sales

A second week of clearance sales gave John Lewis a 17% rise in total sales for the week ending 30th June. Home performed best, with nearly 12% growth, due to discounted items. With the Olympics only a few weeks away, there was a strong interest in Olympic merchandise, which made sales of 12.8 per cent.

Moving into July, nine out of ten clothing retailers had sales on last weekend, offering an average discount of 55%. In a sign of how sales are becoming normalised, this was the highest ever level of discounting recorded in any July month according to accountancy firm PwC. If shoppers are slowly becoming accustomed to sales prices, they won’t want to pay full prices in the run up to Christmas, which is bad news for retailers.

ASDA in financial service move

ASDA announced on Monday its expansion into financial services, with the launch of Asda Money.

Through the scheme, ASDA will become the first British supermarket to offer an unlimited cashback facility. It wants to appeal to its 18 million customers visiting its 542 stores each week, as well as target shoppers who ASDA believes are frustrated with the reward points offered by other supermarkets.

Undoubtedly, some shoppers may be frustrated by the rewards system. However, one of the benefits of Tesco Clubcard is that the value of its rewards are mostly greater than any cash value – for example tickets to Chessington Zoo, Legoland and so on.

Rain dampens Marks and Spencer sales

Marks & Spencer posted its worst underlying quarterly sales performance for three and a half years this week. Sales at UK stores open more for than a year fell 2.8% in the 13 weeks to 30 June 30, which is its first fiscal quarter of the year.

Some of this may be explained by downturn in women’s wear trade during the wettest April and June months since records began. This said, thisannouncement was quickly followed by news on Tuesday that its head of non-food business, Kate Bostock, is due to leave the company.

ASOS retail sales rise

At the same time M&S non-food sales are down, online fashion retailer ASOS has reported a 31% per cent year-on-year rise in retail sales to £137m for the three months to 30 June. UK sales account for 35% of all sales, which rose 8%, a strong result considering how some high street retailers are performing.

Poundland poaches Tesco Director; plans on new payment system

Poundland has revealed its appointment of Andrew Higginson as Non – Executive Chairman for the company. Higginson has 20 years experience in retail, having formerly been Senior Executive and Board Director at Tesco.

Last week, the company reported a sales rise of 21% for the year to April 1st 2012, with a turnover of £780m. With 4m customers each week, the retailer aims on opening 60 new stores next year.

In a separate story, Poundland is considering offering contactless payments to a maximum value of £20, and is also considering self-service checkouts. It says it is testing these with a view to improving in-store experience, but with tight margins, much of this will be down to cost savings.

Sources: FT, Retail Gazette, Retail Times, Reuters

Search Lately: Issue 50

Highlights in search bought to you in by Search Lately at SMG this week include:

  • Can Bing Build On US Growth in the UK?
  • Mobile Websites vs Responsive Design
  • Infographic Links Might Get Discounted In The Future?

Delve into previous issues of Search Lately or follow us on Twitter @SearchLately to stay up to date with search news!

It's not just Tesco with store revamp plans

Steve Smith's picture

The last couple of months have seen announcements by the top four supermarkets about plans to refurbish stores in order to reverse market share declines and provide better shopping experiences.

One reason for us picking up on this news is that research we undertook last year shows just how much some advantage there is to supermarkets that provide more pleasurable experiences for their shoppers, not only in-store, but also online, in their advertising and in other customer contact points. And over the next few months we shall be investigating some of the in-store experiences of supermarket shoppers.

The UK's biggest supermarket Tesco plans to improve the feel of 400 of its stores this year, as part of a £1bn drive to return to like-for-like growth. This drive is a significant shift from growing retail space.

Sainsbury is replicating this shift. During the first quarter of this year, Sainsbury didn’t open any new superstores, and the supermarket plans to revamp 15 to 20 stores this year – double the number it undertook in 2011. Sainsbury’s plans on investing £100 per sq ft in each store, and will give less space to frozen food and more to chilled food. It also plans on improving queue times by providing more tills.

Sainsbury’s won’t even be adding any store extensions. Sainsbury’s has used store extensions to drive like-for-like growth over the last few years. Just under two thirds of its 1.4% like-for-like growth during the first quarter of this year came from extensions. “The focus in the last three years has been to do extensions. We will now do less extensions and some refurbishment,” Sainsbury CEO Justin King recently stated

This doesn’t mean any new stores. King believes that demand for convenience will continue to grow, and Sainsbury’s plans on opening 75 new convenience stores during 2012. King plans on continuing to open one to two new stores each every week for “many, many years”.

ASDA has been renovating its stores for at least the last three years, aiming to overhaul 39 stores during 2012, which up from 32 in 2011 and 30 in 2010. Morrisons too is smartening up its stores, with a focus on its Fresh Format which, similar to Tesco, will provide extra space for fresh produce.

The Surface: Microsoft and Apple set to go head to head in the consumer market

Steve Smith's picture

Microsoft CEO Steve Balmer gave a widely reported interview a couple of days ago about the Surface tablet and going head to head against Apple.

In it, Balmer boldly said that "we are trying to make absolutely clear we are not going to leave any space uncovered to Apple," adding, "not the consumer cloud. Not hardware software innovation. We are not leaving any of that to Apple by itself. Not going to happen. Not on our watch."

Then focusing specifically on Microsoft's new tablet, Balmer explained, "Right now we are working real hard on the Surface. That's the focus. That's our core,"

So how does Microsoft plan on selling the Surface? Through its stores and website. Yet this is not how businesses - a core market for Microsoft - tend to purchase equipment and software from the company. Many of them, from schools and hospitals to retailers and financial businesses, depend on Microsoft's resellers to assemble a hardware/software solution which they then buy. In turn, resellers ordinarily get Microsoft products at a discount and can sell them for a little profit.

Unlike previous Microsoft products that tend to be aimed at business and consumers, Balmer's comments show that Microsoft's core target buyers for the Surface are going to be consumers. Which just happens to be the Apple iPad's core territory.

Project Oscar: EU may approve mobile payments system soon, but what about infrastructure?

Steve Smith's picture

A consortium of mobile operators – Vodafone, O2 and Everything Everywhere (T-Mobile and Orange) - are waiting for the European Commission to approve its mobile wallet and mobile payments business in the UK.

Expected to be approved sometime this year, the aim of Project Oscar is to provide a single platform that retailers, banks and other financial businesses can use to enable customers to store cash on their mobile devices that are linked to current accounts and credit cards.

Project Oscar payments will be enabled through near field communications (NFC). However, handset providers are reluctant to produce phones that have NFC chips because infrastructure is not yet in place from retailers. In turn, retailers are reluctance to put infrastructure in place because there are few if any phones with NFC chips. This is alongside uncertainty about demand and a dearth of payment systems to justify either parties investing right now.

One thing I like about PayPal’s mobile payments system is that it isn't dependent upon NFC. Customers scan a barcode using an app on their phone, and their PayPal accounts are debited accordingly. This type of approach is likely to take off more rapidly because it only requires infrastructure at the retailer side of the transaction.